REDFIELD, Iowa (DTN) -- Midwest cattle producers have dealt with drought conditions over the past several years. Early 2024 spring rains across the area helped pasture and range conditions, but by midsummer, drought conditions returned, and producers have struggled with fall pasture growth.

"Fall pasture just didn't grow. Not even the fescue and this is very uncommon for Missouri," said Eric Bailey, University of Missouri Extension beef nutrition specialist. "With droughts in 2018, 2022, 2023 and 2024, our pastures haven't had a chance to get going, but more concerning this year is the lack of surface water and water sources drying up."

Montgomery City, Missouri, cattle producer Ryan Poston experienced similar moisture issues as others in the Midwest with timely rains until mid-July, when the drought returned. "We put hay up and have a good amount of stored hay, but the pastures needed help when the moisture stopped," he said.

In 2023, Poston tried planting sorghum sudangrass, but it was unsuccessful. This year, he planted milo in part of his pasture and had success because of timely rain. "I fed some hay to get by until a killing frost, so I could turn cows out on the milo. Now I'm strip grazing the milo by moving the fence every few days," he said. "I hope to be able to graze this until January and reduce the need for stored hay this year and use this method in the future too."

Bailey said producers have had to look at different ways to manage during drought conditions, which hasn't helped with rebuilding the historically low cow herd numbers. "I hate to speculate what producers are doing. They'll spend money to retain cows and in general are more reluctant to cull cows even with high prices," he said.

LARGE HAY INVENTORIES

Hay inventory seems to be higher than it has been in the past several years due to the early spring rains. Demand has been light among sellers, which Bailey thinks could be due to the lower cow numbers. He does warn about hay quality. "Producers put less emphasis on forage quality and more on forage quantity," he said. "This low-quality hay won't meet nutritional needs, and supplementation will likely be needed."

WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECAST HELPS

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said the weather situation in the Midwest has improved this fall. "Late summer and early fall brought very little rainfall to most of the region, and drought increased just about everywhere, leading to poor conditions," he said. "But since late October, the weather pattern has gotten much more active. Large storm systems have brought widespread rainfall, and while it hasn't been enough to eliminate the drought in all areas of the region, it has reduced it in some of the larger livestock states."

Iowa and Missouri still have patches of moderate drought, as do parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois. Some areas of severe drought are still seen in Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, where the hardest drought of the season was seen. Despite the pattern of heavy rainfall in southern Nebraska, drought is still a concern. The northern half of the state hasn't seen nearly the same active pattern, with widespread severe drought and patches of extreme drought in the area.

According to Baranick, the winter season is going to be a tricky one for forecasting the weather. La Nina is supposed to be in control in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but that hasn't really happened the way forecasters thought.

"La Nina typically brings in colder air through the region, and the northwestern Midwest is wishy-washy. There isn't a good signal for above- or below-normal precipitation," he said.

From Missouri to Ohio and possibly Michigan, there may be more positive rain and snow events that could add to soil moisture if La Nina gains control. This could develop later this winter, though early December looks to have a period that looks somewhat La Nina-like as well.

"It will be hard to say with certainty if drought will stay gone in the Ohio Valley, if we can eliminate more of it in the east, or if it will get worse in the northwest like Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota," he said. Some parts of the Midwest will continue to experience drought.

Bailey said that with nearly 40% of the cattle on feed being heifers, he doesn't expect producers to expand their herds. Stored hay will likely be used, but there shouldn't be a shortage unless drought persists in the coming year.

Editor's Note: This is the first in a series of five articles outlining current hay and pasture conditions across the country and forecasting weather for the coming months.

Jennifer Carrico can be reached at jennifer.carrico@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @JennCattleGal

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